All of the Guild’s have announced their nominations (some have even awarded their prize, see yesterday’s entry “State of the Race: Is it almost over?”), countless Oscar blogs are or have already posted their predictions. There’s nothing left but for Oscar Bonanza to do the same and wait some 20 hours till the Academy announces their list of nominations. Every year the list of precursors (DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG, ACE, and a slew of endless number of Guilds and Critics groups) la yout a large percentage of how the Academy will follow in their field of nominations but then again every year we get surprise nominations like MUNICH and Steven Spielberg getting Picture and Director nominations in ’05 or Tommy Lee Jones for Lead Actor in IN THE VALLEY OF ELLAH. The big question is who will be the surprises and what will be the snubs? Here are Oscar Bonanza’s Official Oscar Predictions:
Makeup
THE ARTIST
HUGO
THE IRON LADY
Wild Card – GAINSBOURG. Why? It seems every year the most random pick on the shortlist ends with a nomination.
The Bonanza – Two B.P nominees in the list; traditionally the age actors makeup tends to make the cut but I feel the Makeup branch is getting tired of that but THE IRON LADY could replace one of these films in that case.
Visual Effects
HUGO
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
THE TREE OF LIFE
TRANSFORMERS 3: DARK OF THE MOON
X-MEN: THE FIRST CLASS
Wild Card – REAL STEEL. Why? Robot boxing, enough said.
The Bonanza – The first four are verifiable locks while CAPTAIN AMERICA or HARRY POTTER could be in there in place of X-MEN.
Sound Effects Editing
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
SUPER 8
TRANSFORMERS 3: DARK OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE
Wild Card – HUGO. Why? It really is gonna be a double digit Oscar nominated Best Picture contender and it’s love might spread very wide.
The Bonanza – I would be pretty surprised if these are not the five nominations. HUGO as a Best Picture candidate can slip in though.
Sound Mixing
HUGO
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES
SUPER 8
TRANSFORMERS: DARK SIDE OF THE MOON
WAR HORSE
Wild Card Pick – THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO. Why? It might be a bigger Oscar contender across the board than most expect it to be and the tech team is virtually the same as Fincher used for THE SOCIAL NETWORK.
The Bonanza – Usually a tough category to pick for nominations and on Oscar night. The Sound Mixers always shake it up with at least one nomination in the field especially if the field isn’t covered with Best Picture contenders.
Original Song
“Lay your head down” (ALBERT NOBBS)
“Hello Hello” (GNOMEO AND JULIET)
“The Living Proof” (THE HELP)
“Coeur Volant” (HUGO)
“Life’s a Happy Song” (THE MUPPETS)
Wild Card – “Shelter” (TAKE SHELTER). Why? I loved the movie and would love if it was an Oscar nominee in some capacity.
The Bonanza - A complete crapshoot. But I’ll throw in two B.P nominees, a song co-written by a veteran Hollywood actress, a music legend, and a PG box office hit.
Original Score
THE ARTIST
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
WAR HORSE
Wild Card – RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES. Why? Patrick Doyle had a good year with multiple good scores in place.
The Bonanza – The five look very tight but maybe the branch is tired of giving John Williams another nomination but giving Desplat another Oscar nomination for POTTER would also feel repetitive.
Documentary Feature
BILL CUNNINGHAM NEW YORK
BUCK
HELL AND BACK AGAIN
PINA
PROJECT NIM
Wild Card – PARADISE LOST 3. Why? The controversy it surrounded might make it an edgy pick but that can also be the why not for the film missing out.
The Bonanza – The field looks pretty firm but if a film breaks through I fully expect it to be IF A TREE FALLS but again the controversy might hurt it.
Animated Feature
THE ADVENTURES OF TIN TIN
KUNG FU PANDA 2
PUSS IN BOOTS
RANGO
RIO
Wild Card – ALOIS NEBEL. Why? It’s the foreign film in the mix and every few years the Animated Feature branch sticks one in and this year with five nom’s it makes that task easier.
The Bonanza – Five good-very good nominees and the one film that could make it in the pack would be ARTHUR CHRISTMAS as much as the Academy loves Aardman.
Foreign Language Film
MONSIEUR LAZHAR (Canada)
A SEPARATION (Iran)
FOOTNOTE (Israel)
IN DARKNESS (Poland)
WARRIORS OF THE RAINBOW (Thailand)
Wild Card – PINA. Why? Does Wim Wenders have enough respect for a double dip nomination, possibly.
The Bonanza – Iran, Israel, and Poland are absolute locks here while the other two films are tossups especially with this crazy Academy branch.
Costume Design
THE ARTIST
HUGO
JANE EYRE
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Wild Card – THOR. Why? Honestly it had one of the best fantasy uses of costume design I’ve ever seen.
The Bonanza - The first three are locks here. THE HELP could easily get in as a B.P contender. Arthouse / foreign pick THE PRINCESS OF MONTPENSIER also has a chance if eligible while MEEK’S CUTOFF clearly one of the more crafty use of costumes will be willfully ignored.
Art Direction
THE ARTIST
HUGO
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HOLLOWS PART 2
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
WAR HORSE
Wild Card – THOR. Why? The scenes in Asgard were breathtaking but of course the mix of v/fx might hurt but it didn’t AVATAR so who knows.
The Bonanza - I would be surprised if any of the five don’t get nominated. Three B.P contenders, a BAFTA heavy, and POTTER.
Editing
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
MONEYBALL
Wildcard – DRIVE. Why? This is realistically the best chance for the film to get in and the way Critics loved it I think it has a shot here.
The Bonanza - These are the ACE nom’s and all are Best Picture certainties so I don’t see any getting snubbed.
Cinematography
THE ARTIST
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HUGO
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
THE TREE OF LIFE
Wildcard – WAR HORSE. Why? For the stunning war sequences that were reminiscent of what Spielberg did in SAVING PRIVATE RYAN.
The Bonanza -These are the five cinematographer guild nominations but the cinematographers tend to squeeze in something a little off the radar but always five great choices probably the most consistent branch in picking the best nominees of the field.
Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo (THE ARTIST)
Jessica Chastain (THE HELP)
Melissa McCarthy (BRIDESMAIDS)
Octavia Spencer (THE HELP)
Shaileen Woodley (THE DESCENDANTS)
Wildcard – Jessica Chastain for TAKE SHELTER. Why? Personally she is much better in that Indie gem than THE HELP which she’ll likely get her Oscar nomination.
The Bonanza – This is a tricky category to pick outside of THE HELP actresses and Bejo for THE ARTIST is close to a lock but still uncertain. Janet McTeer for ALBERT NOBBS can definitely pop up here and even Carey Mulligan for SHAME.
Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
Albert Brooks (DRIVE)
Nick Nolte (WARRIOR)
Christopher Plummer (BEGINNERS)
Andy Serkis (RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES)
Wildcard – Brad Pitt (THE TREE OF LIFE). Why? It might be Brad Pitt’s most accomplished and difficult performance of his career but since he’s a lock for Lead Actor this might not come to pass.
The Bonanza - The veterans own the field. I’m sticking to my guns on Serkis breaking the mold on mo-cap performances and getting in. If Serkis falls off Jonah Hill (MONEYBALL) should pick up the nomination to bring the average age of the field down significantly.
Lead Actress
Viola Davis (THE HELP)
Rooney Mara (THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO)
Meryl Streep (THE IRON LADY)
Tilda Swinton (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)
Michelle Williams (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
Wildcard – Kirsten Dunst (MELANCHOLIA). Why? It’s one of the best performances of the year unfortunately in a film that is too much on the arthouse side and hasn’t gotten much buzz.
The Bonanza - Four of the five have been locks for months. While Mara’s performance seems to be pushing out Glenn Close for ALBERT NOBBS, the only other actress that can get nominated in the field.
Lead Actor
George Clooney (THE DESCENDANTS)
Jean Dujardin (THE ARTIST)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. EDGAR)
Michael Fassbender (SHAME)
Brad Pitt (MONEYBALL)
Wildcard – Michael Shannon (TAKE SHELTER). Why? It was one of the most memorable performances of the year by an actor who keeps dishing these out annually now.
The Bonanza – Five verifiable locks. No question about it.
Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, N. Faxon, J. Rash (THE DESCENDANTS)
John Logan (HUGO)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (THE IDES OF MARCH)
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillan, S. Chervin (MONEYBALL)
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
Wildcard – Jane Goldman and Matthew Vaughn (X-MEN: THE FIRST CLASS). Why? It is arguably one of the most clever and serious written superhero films.
The Bonanza - TINKER might fall to the side for HARRY POTTER love if it’s there but the rest are locks at this point.
Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanavicius (THE ARTIST)
Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo (BRIDESMAIDS)
Woody Allen (MIDNIGHT IN PARIS)
Asghar Farhadi (A SEPARATION)
Steve McQueen, Abi Morgan (SHAME)
Wildcard – J.C Chandor (MARGIN CALL). Why? One of the best reviewed movies of the year and easily the smartest script of the year.
The Bonanza - A very hard category to predict. I definitely went with two great non-Hollywood screenplays that were the best of the year but are not locks. 50/50 has a good chance at taking one of these spots but I doubt we get 2 or 3 comedy script nominations here.
Director
Woody Allen (MIDNIGHT IN PARIS)
David Fincher (THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO)
Michel Hazanavicius (THE ARTIST)
Alexander Payne (THE DESCENDANTS)
Martin Scorsese (HUGO)
Wildcard – Steve McQueen (SHAME). Why? My favorite direction of the year and a director needs to get noticed asap as one of the more brilliant directors in cinema.
The Bonanza – The five here are locks and the only director who can slip through is Bennett Miller (MONEYBALL) but I would be shocked if these are not the five.
Picture
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
THE HELP
HUGO
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
WAR HORSE
Wildcard – SHAME. Why? Again selfish reasons since it was my favorite film of the year and would be a great Indie pick in the mix.
The Bonanza - WAR HORSE and THE HELP I see as closer to the bottom of this pile so if there are only 6 or 7 nominations these films can fall off. And if there are 9 and 10 nominations it should be HARRY POTTER and BRIDESMAIDS.
